Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he hears Canadians’ “concerns and frustrations” as
questions mount about his future as Liberal leader following his party’s stunning by-election
loss. Conservative Don Stewart won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St.
Paul’s in a dramatic win, ending a race that was largely viewed as a referendum on Trudeau’s
leadership. “This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear
your concerns and frustrations,” Trudeau said in a media statement. “These are not easy
times. And it is clear, I and my entire team, have much more hard work to do to deliver
tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel.”
Before Monday’s close vote, a Conservative candidate hadn’t been competitive in Toronto-St.
Paul’s since the 1980s. The party hadn’t won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal
election. The outgoing Liberal MP for the riding, Carolyn Bennett, beat her Conservative
opponent by about 24 points in 2021. This time around, Liberal candidate Leslie Church lost
by about two points. Stewart’s win broke the Liberals’ grip on urban Toronto and raises
questions for Liberal MPs who thought their seats were safe. Roughly 55 Liberal MPs won
their Ontario seats by margins smaller than 24 points.
Trudeau’s own approval rating hasn’t fared much better. The Abacus poll found that 59 per
cent of those surveyed had a negative opinion of the prime minister, while 33 per cent have a
positive view of him. Trudeau has repeatedly told journalists he plans to stay on as leader of
the party and has down played the poll numbers. Last week, he told Canadians aren’t in
“decision mode” yet. “We will never stop working and fighting to make sure you have what
you need to get through these tough times. My focus is on your success and that’s where it’s
going to stay,” he said Tuesday.
Several anonymous Liberal MPs are discussing a potential shakeup within the party,
expressing concerns about leadership. They believe significant changes, possibly including
the resignation of the Prime Minister, are necessary due to perceived tone-deaf actions and to
safeguard the party’s future and legacy. The Liberal Party lacks a formal leadership review
process in its constitution but conducts “leadership endorsement” ballots after a general
election loss. These ballots are weighted equally by riding association and require 50% of
points nationally for the leader to retain their position.
The Reform Act, proposed by Conservative MP Michael Chong, allows MPs to initiate a
leadership review by signing a petition. If 20% of the caucus supports the petition, a vote is
triggered, and if a majority votes against the leader, the leader must resign. The Act requires
parties to vote on adopting its measures after each general election. The Conservative Party
used it to remove Erin O’Toole as leader in 2022.
