Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has faced another significant setback as the Liberals lost a key byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, a riding in Montreal previously considered a stronghold for the party. This follows their defeat in Toronto—St. Paul’s to the Conservatives earlier this year. In addition to the Montreal loss, the NDP managed to retain its seat in Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona after a tough contest with the Conservatives.
Trudeau is already under pressure from within his party to step down following the June byelection defeat. Veteran Liberal strategist Andrew Perez has described this latest loss as “yet another nail in Justin Trudeau’s coffin.” Though byelections are often seen as less impactful, the results in both Montreal and Winnipeg are being closely watched as indicators of shifting political trends in Canada.
The Bloc Québécois’ victory in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was achieved by a narrow margin of just 248 votes. The seat became available after former justice minister David Lametti exited politics. Despite strong efforts by the Liberals to retain the seat, including multiple visits from Liberal ministers, the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé emerged victorious. The Bloc’s deputy House leader, Christine Normandin, remarked that the tight race itself was a significant achievement, demonstrating growing support for their platform and the issues they champion.
In the meantime, the NDP found a silver lining in the competitive race in Montreal. NDP candidate Craig Sauvé, who was a strong contender in the tight three-way battle, suggested that the party’s performance in Montreal could translate into future successes in the city. “If the NDP is competitive in Montreal, we’ll see more NDP MPs at the next election,” Sauvé stated.
Montrealer Graham Juneau highlighted a general sense of disengagement among his peers, noting a lack of enthusiasm for any particular party. His own decision to vote for no one was a statement on his dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
In Winnipeg, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh defended his party’s position against a robust Conservative challenge. Singh’s strategy involved a pact with Trudeau in 2022, aimed at advancing NDP priorities in exchange for preventing an early election. While this agreement has led to initiatives such as a national dental care program and proposed legislation for pharmacare, it has not improved the NDP’s standing in national polls. Recently, Singh pulled out of the pact to reposition his party as the primary progressive alternative to the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.
Despite the NDP’s victory in Winnipeg with 48.1 percent of the vote, the Conservatives made notable gains, increasing their share from 28 percent in the 2021 general election to 44 percent in this byelection. Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, who conceded defeat, acknowledged the progress made during the campaign.
