The Canadian government has set a new target to reduce emissions by 45-50% from 2005 levels by 2035, despite recommendations from its official Net Zero Advisory Board (NZAB) for a more ambitious 50-55% goal. Climate activists had been calling for an 80% reduction. The new target builds on Canada’s existing 40-45% reduction goal for 2030. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault stated that the 2035 target “keeps us on track” to ensure a sustainable future for the next generations.
However, the NZAB expressed concern that the lower end of the government’s new target could hinder Canada’s ability to meet its legislated net-zero emissions goal by mid-century. In a statement, the board warned that setting a target below 50% would necessitate even deeper decarbonization efforts in the future, resulting in higher costs and risks. The NZAB stressed the need for a national effort to exceed a 50% reduction by 2035 while ensuring that policies remain affordable for Canadians.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, all signatory countries are required to submit more ambitious climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to the United Nations by the end of next year. Canada confirmed that its 2035 target will be included in its NDC, though the full document will not be released until 2025. A detailed implementation plan will be outlined by December 2029.
The NZAB compared Canada’s 2035 target unfavorably with those of other wealthy nations. The UK recently set a target to cut emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035, following advice from its Climate Change Committee. The EU is expected to adopt a similar target, while Japan has proposed a 60% reduction to remain on track for net-zero emissions. NZAB member Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, criticized Canada’s target, noting that it implies a maximum of only a 1% annual reduction in emissions between 2030 and 2035. This rate is much slower than the 3%, 5%, and 8% reductions seen in the US, UK, and EU, respectively, in 2023. She called the target “incredibly disappointing,” warning that it would damage Canada’s global credibility, especially among G7 nations.
Since 2015, the government of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has taken steps such as implementing a carbon tax and attempting to cap emissions from the oil and gas sector. Despite these efforts, Canada’s emissions have not consistently declined, in part due to the country’s high oil production, a sector controlled by provincial governments, and rising emissions from transportation, driven by Canadians’ preference for larger, more polluting vehicles like SUVs.
The government has argued that its policies have helped “bend the emissions curve,” citing improvements in energy efficiency, decarbonizing electricity, and the carbon tax. When the Liberals came to power in 2015, emissions were projected to rise by 9% by 2030, but they have instead fallen slightly. The clean technology sector saw over 314,000 jobs in 2021, a 6.5% increase from the previous year.
Canada’s carbon tax remains a point of contention, particularly in oil-dependent provinces like Alberta, and is opposed by the right-wing Conservative Party, which is currently leading in the polls ahead of the federal election scheduled for October 2025. The Conservatives have campaigned against the tax with the slogan “axe the tax.”
Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, criticized Trudeau’s decision, saying he had “caved” to climate change deniers and “oil and gas-backed disinformation campaigns.” She lamented the lack of strong leadership in the face of urgent climate challenges, especially as billionaires continue to profit from activities that worsen climate change.
